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The idea that a static world implies monotonically increasing confidence in your beliefs is really shaky, logically.

The idea that a static world implies monotonically increasing confidence in your beliefs is really shaky, logically. Hill-climbing in a landscape of belief-fitness could easily arrive at a local maximum. Exactly, and it's common to see that in many fields. People are persuaded by things that were bad ideas when they were new, and aren't swayed by new evidence to the contrary. To further improve your beliefs you might need to become less certain. Isn't that sort of the point of the essay? Apart from that, how can something (confidence) increase in a static world? I don't understand. Didn't your previous point argue exactly how hill-climbing could happen, and isn't that a (bad) example of confidence changing? Or are you really arguing over the semantics changing beliefs in a static world? I hope you aren't; otherwise, like you said: A waste of time.

Posted by nl on Dec 21, 2014, 12:56 AM

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The idea that a static world implies monotonically increasing confidence in your beliefs is really shaky, logically.

nlDec 21, 2014, 12:56 AM

The idea that a static world implies monotonically increasing confidence in your beliefs is really shaky, logically. Hill-climbing in a landscape of belief-fitness could easily arrive at a local maximum. Exactly, and it's common to see that in many fields. People are persuaded by things that were bad ideas when they were new, and aren't swayed by new evidence to the contrary. To further improve your beliefs you might need to become less certain. Isn't that sort of the point of the essay? Apart from that, how can something (confidence) increase in a static world? I don't understand. Didn't your previous point argue exactly how hill-climbing could happen, and isn't that a (bad) example of confidence changing? Or are you really arguing over the semantics changing beliefs in a static world? I hope you aren't; otherwise, like you said: A waste of time.

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