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This was the same argument that salespeople would use whenever you stepped into a bank between 2005 and 2008 in Spain: "Real estate price...

This was the same argument that salespeople would use whenever you stepped into a bank between 2005 and 2008 in Spain: "Real estate prices never go down". Then they did, and the most of the banking system in Spain went bankrupt. I'm using the Spanish example because it's the one that I am familiar with, but this happened pretty much in every developed country. People tend to forget that generally we can't predict the future, specially not by extrapolating the data from the past few years. Ironically I think that economists tend to make this mistake more than any other group except for fortune tellers and weather forecasters. Related to this I won't get tired of recommending "The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" by NN Taleb [1]. [1] http://www.amazon.com/The-Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness/d...

Posted by josu on Jul 24, 2015, 12:40 AM

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This was the same argument that salespeople would use whenever you stepped into a bank between 2005 and 2008 in Spain: "Real estate price...

josuJul 24, 2015, 12:40 AM

This was the same argument that salespeople would use whenever you stepped into a bank between 2005 and 2008 in Spain: "Real estate prices never go down". Then they did, and the most of the banking system in Spain went bankrupt. I'm using the Spanish example because it's the one that I am familiar with, but this happened pretty much in every developed country. People tend to forget that generally we can't predict the future, specially not by extrapolating the data from the past few years. Ironically I think that economists tend to make this mistake more than any other group except for fortune tellers and weather forecasters. Related to this I won't get tired of recommending "The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" by NN Taleb [1]. [1] http://www.amazon.com/The-Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness/d...

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